Will the U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill" Help or Hurt Widowed Women?

Despite modest tax breaks, massive cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could leave millions of widows without healthcare and food assistance

Based on my research of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBA) that passed the U.S. House of Representatives, this legislation would likely hurt widowed women overall, despite including some tax benefits that would help some.

Here's the comprehensive picture from my analysis:

What's in the bill?

The bill passed by a single-vote margin (215-214) and includes tax cuts, increased border and military spending, and cuts to Medicaid (US House narrowly passes Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, sends on to Senate | Reuters). The legislation includes massive cuts to Medicaid ($700 billion) and SNAP food assistance ($300 billion) - the largest cuts in these programs' histories (CNBCMedicarerights).

How this specifically impacts widowed women: The magnitude of this impact cannot be overstated—by age 85, 73% of all U.S. women are widowed, meaning these cuts to safety net programs would affect millions of widowed women during their most financially vulnerable years.

This Social Security Report “The Economic Consequences of a Husband’s Death: Evidence from HRS and AHEAD” shares “Households headed by elderly women still experience substantially higher rates of poverty than do other households.”

The CSW Commission on the Status of Women Report: Gender and Poverty Brief shared this article in 2023, “Older Women, Widows and Poverty” by Rev. Susan Hagood Lee, PhD. As the United Nations recently noted, "old-age poverty has a woman's face" in both developing and developed countries.

In “Medicare Gaps and Widow Poverty” Social Security quotes “For the past 30 or more years, the poverty rate for elderly widows has persistently been three to four times higher than that for elderly married women. Although policymakers have repeatedly expressed concern about these high rates, successful policy prescriptions have yet to be adopted.”

Harmful effects:

1. Health Coverage Loss: An estimated 14 million Americans could lose health insurance coverage by 2034, with approximately 8.6 million becoming uninsured primarily from losing Medicaid (AmericanprogressCNBC). Since widowed women often have lower incomes and higher healthcare needs for a longer length of lifespan, they're disproportionately likely to rely on Medicaid.

2. Food Insecurity: 3 million households may lose SNAP food assistance due to stricter work requirements and other changes, affecting millions of low-income families (CNBCCbpp). Widowed women, especially elderly, often struggle with food security on fixed incomes.

3. Medicare Impacts: The bill's cost would trigger automatic 4% cuts to Medicare payments, resulting in a $500 billion reduction over eight years starting in 2026 (Four Proposed Changes to Medicare in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act | Kiplinger). The bill also restricts Medicare eligibility for some lawful immigrants who have worked and paid taxes for decades (Broken Promises: Republicans’ Budget Reconciliation Bill Would Cut Medicare - Medicare Rights Center).

Main Limited benefits:

• Additional $4,000 tax deduction for people 65 and older with lower incomes ($75,000 or less for single filers) (What is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and what does it mean for me? | Fidelity)

• No tax on tips (for eligible occupations) and overtime compensation through 2028 (What’s in the 2025 House Republican Tax Bill | Bipartisan Policy Center)

• Extended administration tax cuts from 2017 (US House narrowly passes Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, sends on to Senate | Reuters)

The broader impact: Analysis shows the lowest income quintile would lose about $820 on average, representing a 14.6% loss in income for that group (The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model), while tax cuts would primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans (Trump Backs House GOP Bill Slashing $1 Trillion From Medicaid and Food Stamps | Truthout).

The modest tax benefits for widowed women would likely be far outweighed by the loss of healthcare coverage and food assistance.

Benefits for wealthy widows:

1. Tax cuts favor the wealthy: Analysis shows tax cuts would primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans, while the lowest income quintile would lose about $820 on average (UpennTruthout)

2. SALT deduction increase: The bill raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000, which would overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest households (US House narrowly passes Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, sends on to Senate | Reuters). This is particularly valuable for wealthy widows in high-tax states.

3. Estate tax benefits: The bill permanently extends higher estate tax exemptions, setting the exemption at $15 million in 2026, costing $212 billion over the decade (What’s in the 2025 House Republican Tax Bill | Bipartisan Policy Center)

4. Pass-through business deduction: The bill permanently extends and expands the 20% deduction for pass-through business income to 23%, costing $820 billion (What’s in the 2025 House Republican Tax Bill | Bipartisan Policy Center)

Wealthy widows are protected from cuts because they: